Fastest Growing 45-64 Year-Old Populations in Large Metros Were in Austin, Raleigh and Salt Lake City; Medium Metros Were Led by Provo, Lakeland-FL
Among large metros (1 million or more), the population aged 45 to 64 (Generation X, with the youngest Baby Boomers) grew fastest from 2020 to 2025 in Austin (11%), Raleigh (9%) and Salt Lake City (8%). Orlando, Dallas-Ft. Worth, and Houston followed. Nationally, this age group shrank 3% as the smaller GenX population replaced the aging Baby Boomer population.
Among medium metros (500k to 1M), the Top 10 were led by Provo (21%), Lakeland-FL (12%), and Fayetteville-AR (12%). Ogden-UT, Boise City, and McAllen followed.
Several metros stand out for their improvement since 2015:
Large metros Austin and Raleigh maintained their top position from 2015’s five-year growth rankings. Salt Lake City climbed from 15th to 3rd position. Other large metros like Orlando, DFW, Houston, and Charlotte ranked about as well in 2025 as they did ten years prior.
Medium metros shifted much more in the rankings over the ten years. Florida metros jumped into the Top 10: Lakeland, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Port St. Lucie, and Sarasota. Ogden-UT jumped into the Top 10 as well.
The steepest percentage declines in population in this age group from 2020 to 2025 were in Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, and Cleveland.
Find your community’s data in the map below. And, we provide data for counties so you can determine which counties within your metro are growing the fastest. State data is also provided. A full data download is available in the second sheet.
Methodology and Source
Growth is measured by the 5-year percentage change in population 45-64 years old, which aligns mostly with Generation X and the youngest Baby Boomers. Headlight Data combines metropolitan areas and micropolitan areas into one list and ranks them by population growth according to size category: Large (1,000,000+ people), Medium (500k up to 1M) and Small (under 500k). Headlight uses the latest 2023 OMB definitions of metros and micros applied retroactively for all years. Metros (which we define as both metropolitan and micropolitan areas) account for 95% of the US population overall and 99% of US population change from 2020 to 2025.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program. Figures for 2020-2025 come from the Vintage 2025 estimates; the 2010-2015 comparison uses the estimates vintage published for those years, which is built on the 2010 census base.
The Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program (PEP) is a modeled estimate of age, race, and sex down to the county level, built from administrative records — birth and death certificates, IRS tax returns, Medicare enrollment, and Social Security files — carried forward annually from the last census. The Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) is an annual statistical survey of U.S. households whose weights are calibrated to match PEP estimates, which makes PEP the authoritative source for population by age, race, and sex.